Protecting Your Portfolio From Hyperinflation, Deflation, Confiscation, and Devastation

Posted on July 12, 2020 // 7 Comments

The third book in the “Investing for Adults” series by William Bernstein is Deep Risk: How History Informs Portfolio Design. As before, I’m just trying to pull out a few practical takeaways rather than summarize the entire book. In Book 1: The Ages of the Investor, I learned to take advantage of a lucky streak in stocks and stop when I’ve won the game. In Book 2: Skating Where the Puck Was, I learned why it’s so hard to find any “new and improved” asset classes.

The main problem addressed in this book is “deep risk”, the permanent loss of real (inflation-adjusted) capital. This contrasts with “shallow risk”, in which the value of something usually rebounds within 5-7 years or less.

Here are some deep risks that you can offset by purchasing insurance (and be happy if you never have to use it!).

  • Death of income earner.
  • Long-term health disability.
  • Legal risk – lawsuit with large judgment.
  • Select types of asset loss (i.e. theft, building fire).

Unfortunately, there are other deep risks against which you can’t buy insurance.

  • Hyperinflation, prolonged and severe.
  • Deflation, prolonged and severe.
  • Confiscation by government.
  • Devastation (war).

Over an extended period of time, history has shown us that “safe” bonds are often more sensitive to deep risk than stocks. Many countries saw 100% losses for their bondholders, while partial ownership in a business survived wars and regime changes. An example given was in Germany after World War II. Bonds are also at risk for inflation, while a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (a negative bond) can be a great inflation hedge.

A portfolio of internationally-diversified stocks is the most practical way to protect yourself from both inflation and deflation. Historically, inflation is much more likely than deflation. You might have an event in one country, but it would be very rare to have a large majority of nations experience severe inflation and low stock returns all at the same time. In such a case you’d be looking at global devastation.

As for local confiscation and local devastation, you would be looking at foreign-held assets, foreign property, perhaps the right passports, and a plan to escape in a timely manner. This sounds like something that a billionaire might pay someone else to set up, but not so sure how practical it would be for most people.

Bernstein offers his own summary:

This booklet’s primary advice regarding risky assets is loud and clear: your best long-term defense against deep risk is a globally value-tilted diversified equity portfolio, perhaps spiced up with a small amount of precious metals equity and natural resource producers, TIPS, and, if to your taste, bullion and foreign real estate.

I admit that I am somewhat fascinated by worst-case scenarios, and I recommend reading the entire book for the full discussion. But in the end, my primary takeaway is that if you have a globally-diversified stock portfolio, you’ve done most of what you can in terms of deep risk. The rest is the same advice as before: consider TIPS if you have enough money, maximize Social Security, and keep some nice safe bonds and bank CDs for short-term needs (shallow risk).

Filed Under: Book Reviews, Investing, Retirement //

Free Social Security Tool for Optimal Benefit Claiming Strategy

Posted on July 9, 2020 // 5 Comments

Update: The free Open Social Security tool has been updated to include a new “heat map” visualization that illustrates the relative values of claiming Social Security at different ages. Details here. Here is a sample graph for a couple with similar income histories and the same age:

For this situation, we see that the worst expected outcomes would occur if both individuals claimed really early. The best expected outcomes occur when one claims relatively early and the other claims relatively late.

Original post:

socialsecuritycardWhen to start claiming Social Security to maximize your potential benefit can be a complicated question, especially for couples. There are multiple paid services that will run the numbers for you, including Social Security Solutions (aka SS Analyzer) and Maximize My Social Security, which cost between $20 and $250 depending on included features.

Mike Piper of Oblivious Investor has created a free, open-source calculator called Open Social Security. To use the calculator, you will need to your Primary Insurance Amount (PIA). This amount depends on your future income, so I would first consult this other free Social Security benefit estimator tool to more easily estimate your PIA. I believe the value you see at SSA.gov assumes that you will keep working at your historical average income until your claiming age (which won’t be the case for us).

Here are our results as a couple, assuming we were the same age (we are close) and with my expected benefit being slightly higher than hers:

The strategy that maximizes the total dollars you can be expected to spend over your lifetimes is as follows:

You file for your retirement benefit to begin 12/2047, at age 70 and 0 months.
Your spouse files for his/her retirement benefit to begin 4/2040, at age 62 and 4 months.

The present value of this proposed solution would be $657,749.

Basically, the tool says that my wife should apply as soon as possible, while I should claim as late as possible. I believe this is because this scenario allows us claim at least some income starting from 62, and if I die first after that, my wife would still be able to “upgrade” to my higher benefit.

The tool might take some time to run the calculations, depending on your browser. You can learn more and provide feedback at Bogleheads and Github.

I am not a Social Security expert, and am not qualified to speak to the accuracy of the results. However, Mr. Piper is the author of the highly-rated book Social Security Made Simple, has a history of doing thorough work, and the tool has been around a while now. If I were close to 62, I would probably also use the paid services for a second and third opinion. Why? Spending $100 now could save you many thousands in the future.

The best thing about this free tool is that it can introduce a lot of people to ideas that they would have not otherwise considered. Even if it lacks every bell or whistle, being free means it can help more people. Many spouses wouldn’t think of having one claim as early as possible (age 62), and then have the other claim as late as possible (age 70). It’s not common sense unless you understand the inner workings of Social Security.

Filed Under: Deals & Offers, Retirement, Tools & Calculators //

The Money Hamster Wheel, Part 2: Multiple Solutions, Not Just More Money

Posted on July 3, 2020 // 3 Comments

In Part 1: Identifying the Problem, I shared Lawrence Yeo’s unique take on money and the hamster wheel metaphor, where we just keep spinning and can’t get off. Since then, I have thought more about how best to slow things down by instead attacking each step of the cycle. To be honest, I don’t know if I can properly explain Yeo’s concepts, so I came up with my own version of the hamster wheel. Here it is, rather hastily-drawn:

A common criticism of seeking financial freedom is that it’s all about money. Make more money. Spend less money. However, if you take a step back, money is just part of the flow between how you spend the time in your life. How are you making that money? Why do you want more money? Why are you spending the money?

Accordingly, here various ways that someone could lessen the impact of each part of the cycle.

  • Find better-paying work that is equally fulfilling and stimulating. Try to save the excess. Don’t make yourself more unsatisfied for more money.
  • Find more fulfilling and stimulating work, even if it pays less. Be happier, and thus need to spend less to replace that happiness.
  • Engage in non-work activities that provide meaning and stimulation. If you need a better job, work on a new skill. If you need more stimulation, start a side business and keep your current job. Or just find a new hobby/sport/language. Taking action is the key, as the right activities will energize you.
  • Reduce your intake of low-quality media. Stop consuming things that make you feel worse about yourself. The wrong activities will drain you, which encourages more spending.
  • Exercise more (try outdoors or with other people) and eat better food. This gives you more energy all day long.
  • Spend less money on the things that don’t matter, so you need less money. Cut out the mindless and unhelpful spending.
  • Spend more money on the things that truly matter to you. Now that you cut the mindless, you can spend more on improving interpersonal relationships, or energizing activities (see above).
  • The more you learn to control this cycle, the more you can use the concept of “Enough” to widen the gap between money in and money out. Decouple earning and spending. Invest in enough productive assets so that your required income is less and less.

Addressing the problem from one angle, helps free you up to attack it from another angle later. For example, if you eat and exercise better, you might have enough energy to take corrective action, and not just fantasize about that side business when you really just turn on the TV after a long day at work.

Filed Under: Inspirational, Retirement //

The Money Hamster Wheel, Part 1: Identifying The Problem

Posted on July 1, 2020 // 3 Comments

I started looking into financial independence because I simply couldn’t imagine doing what I was doing every weekday at that time for another 30 or 40 years. Some people know exactly what they want to spend their life doing, and it also pays the bills and then some. I was always envious of those folks. Strangely, I never really felt that making more money was the final answer. I saved diligently in order to quit my job and go back to school and explore alternate paths.

This week, I’ve been pondering a longread by Lawrence Yeo about his philosophy of money at How Money Forever Changed Us. It’s a very high-level exploration of how money both solves and causes various conflicts in our lives. This culminates into what he calls the Money Hamster Wheel:

The questions posed are slightly different than you may have seen elsewhere. Does working a job that doesn’t fulfill our need for purpose and meaning really take something away from our identity? Is that identity loss what we are really trying to replace by spending money? Why is it so rare to find people that are truly happy and aligned with their work and the rest of their lives?

You’ll have to read the entire article to understand all the spokes of his wheel (although I’m still not sure I do completely), and while Yeo admits that it is not possible to fully “get off the wheel”, you can do something:

When I look at each spoke on the wheel, I view them as potential opportunities to slow the whole thing down. If we are aware of each mechanism, we can notice when we’re operating under them, and lessen their impact in turn.

The hamster wheel is a great metaphor. Over time, I’ve accepted that financial independence will always be rare. I used to think that higher income = more wealth = more stability. But then I noticed that certain things don’t change when people make $75k vs. $150k vs. $300k a year. The neighborhood changes. The car changes. Yes, even average net worth changes (but rarely enough to 33x expenses before age 65). Unless they hit a huge windfall in the multi-millions, most of them will work until they are 65 or older. Most will say they like their job okay, but they would never do it for a 25% pay cut. Most will never be able to handle an extended period of unemployment. Earn more, spend more. Still spinning on the wheel. Maybe that’s just how it’s meant to be? Yeo presents a solution:

But if we take the time to look closer, we’ll see that a middle-ground exists. A place where our fears could be calmed, and our desires could be curtailed. A place where the quest for money falls only to what is essential.

In a world where neither scarcity nor abundance will do, perhaps the closest solution to the great paradox comes down to one principle:

The ability to recognize when we have enough.

Sounds easy, but shockingly hard. “Enough” is not encouraged in our culture. I still struggle with it as well, or at least I’m afraid I won’t be able to keep up the fight forever.

Filed Under: Inspirational, Retirement //

In Defense of Working One More Year (OMY)

Posted on June 15, 2020 // 3 Comments

In early retirement discussion forums, you’ll often see the term OMY, which refers to people who have reached their calculated retirement savings target, but decide to keep working “One More Year”. Sometimes that one more year becomes two more years, three more years, and so on. This leads to OMY being seen as an irrational behavioral quirk like hedonic adaptation. However, are the potential benefits of working one more year being under-appreciated?

In the Medium article How important is asset allocation versus withdrawal rates in retirement?, EREVN (he lives in Vietnam) compares the power of picking the optimal asset allocation vs. saving more money. Investors often worry about whether they own the right mix of stocks and bonds. Do you own enough stocks, as to get a high enough return? Do you own enough bonds, so you don’t freak out during a market drop?

EREVN points out that historically, the optimal asset allocation in terms of having your portfolio last the longest is almost always 100% stocks. (98% of the time.) Even including the other 2%, how much of a benefit is it to hold the optimal asset allocation?

Read the entire article for full understanding of the assumptions taken, but here is the summary of his experiments. We usually optimize asset allocation based on highest return, but that’s not exactly the same as withdrawal rate. Note: Whenever you see “4% withdrawal rate”, that’s the same as having 25 times your annual expenses. 3% withdrawal rate = 33.3x expenses, 2% withdrawal rate = 50x expenses, etc. I added the stuff in the brackets [].

Even with perfect hindsight, choosing the best possible asset allocation is only equivalent to going from a 4% withdrawal rate to a 3.7% or 3.8% withdrawal rate. [25x expenses to 26x or 27x expenses.] In other words, saving 1 or 2 extra years of expenses dominates getting the asset allocation decision perfectly correct. In reality, we don’t have perfect hindsight and our asset allocation will be sub-optimal.

The powerful conclusion:

Instead of stressing about trying to pick “the right” asset allocation, you’re better off picking anything reasonable and ignoring every other asset allocation internet discussion for the rest of your life… and then working an extra six or twelve months to pad out your retirement fund before retiring.

I like the paring of working one more year and being able to drop the worry about asset allocation now and forever! You don’t want to work forever, but this does make OMY have multiple benefits (existing portfolio can grow another year, might even save more, stop worrying about asset allocation).

Here are a few related posts on “Saving More vs. XXX” from the archives:

Image via GIPHY.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

William Bernstein and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Posted on June 4, 2020 // 3 Comments

A recurring theme in investing is that you start out learning the simple basics, then you feel like you can optimize things and spend a lot of effort trying to do so, and eventually you realize that simple is probably just fine. No matter how closely you mine the past, you can’t predict the future. As the Buffett quote goes, “If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.” That’s what came to mind when I read William Bernstein on safe withdrawal rates in retirement:

Even the most sophisticated retirement projections contain so much uncertainty that the entire process can be summarized as follows: Below the age of 65, a 2% spending rate is bulletproof, 3% is probably safe, and 4% is taking chances. Above 5%, you’re taking an increasingly serious risk of dying poor. (For each five years above 65, add perhaps half of a percentage point to those numbers.)

Source: The Ages of the Investor: A Critical Look at Life-cycle Investing.

Something to keep in mind when you become obsessed about getting from a 98% success rate to a 99% success rate on a simple retirement calculator from Vanguard or a fancy one like FIRECalc. (Not that I’ve done that, ever, of course…)

Filed Under: Book Reviews, Investing, Retirement //

The Role of Luck in Long-Term Investing, and When To Stop Playing The Game

Posted on June 1, 2020 // 10 Comments

I am re-reading a series called “Investing for Adults” by William Bernstein. By “Investing for Adults”, Bernstein means that he assumes that you already know the basics of investing and that he can skip to more advanced insights. There are four parts:

A commonly-cited part of the first book The Ages of the Investor is the question “Once you have won the game, why keep playing?”. If you have enough money to buy a set of safe assets like inflation-adjusted annuities, delayed (and thus increased) Social Security payments, and a TIPS ladder to create enough income payments for life, you should seriously considering selling your risky assets and do exactly that. (This is referred to as a liability-matching portfolio, or LMP. You can keep investing any excess funds in risky assets, if you wish.)

A wrinkle to this plan is that you won’t know exactly when the stock market will help make that happen. Before you reach your “number”, you’ll most likely be buying stocks and hoping they grow in value. Let’s say you saved 20% of your salary and invested it in the S&P 500*. How long would it take you to “win the game”?

Historically, it could be as little at 19 years or as long as 37. That’s nearly a two-decade difference in retirement dates! Same savings rate, different outcomes.

This paradigm rests on too many faulty assumptions to list, but it still illustrates a valid point: You just don’t know when you’re going to achieve your LMP, and when you do, it’s best to act.

If, at any point, a bull market pushes your portfolio over the LMP “magic number” of 20 to 25 times your annual cash-flow needs beyond Social Security and pensions, you’ve won the investing game. Why keep playing? Start bailing.

If you don’t act, the market might drop and it could take years to get back to your number again. This is one of the reasons why some people should not be holding a lot of stocks as they near retirement. Some people might need the stock exposure because the upside is better than the downside (they don’t have enough money unless stocks do well, or longevity risk), but for others the downside is worse than the upside (they DO have enough money unless stocks do poorly, or unnecessary market risk).

I find the concept of a risk-free liability-matching portfolio (LMP) much harder to apply to early retirement, as it is nearly impossible to create a truly guaranteed inflation-adjusted lifetime income stream that far into the future. Inflation-adjusted annuities are rare, expensive, and you’re betting that the insurer also lasts for another 50+ years if you’re 40 years old now. Social Security is subject to political risk and may become subject to means-testing. TIPS currently have negative real yields across the entire curve, and only go out to 30 years. (As Bernstein explores in future books, you’ll also have to avoid wars, prolonged deflation, confiscation, and other “deep risk” events.)

* Here are the details behind the chart:

As a small thought experiment, I posited imaginary annual cohorts who began work on January 1 of each calendar year, and who then on each December 31 invested 20% of their annual salary in the real return series of the S&P 500. I then measured how long it took each annual cohort, starting with the one that began work in 1925, to reach a portfolio size of 20 years of salary (which constitutes 25 years of their living expenses, since presumably they were able to live on 80% of their salary). Figure 11 shows how long it took each cohort beginning work from 1925 to 1980 to reach that retirement goal.

Filed Under: Book Reviews, Investing, Retirement //

Morningstar Target Date Retirement Fund Rankings 2020: Not All The Same

Posted on May 17, 2020 // Leave a Comment

The default option inside many employer-sponsored retirement plans are Target Date Funds (TDFs), which adjust their portfolio holdings automatically over time based on a specific target retirement date. Morningstar just released their 2020 Target-Date fund report. You’ll need to provide your name and e-mail to download the free full report. There is a lot of in-depth analysis for industry insiders, although many individual investors are basically stuck with the one fund series that is available in their 401k/403b plan. Besides looking up your fund, here are a few broader takeaways.

Here is the average glide path across 53 different TDF series (taken from 2019 report). On average, most TDFs have an asset allocation close to 90% equity and 10% bonds in the early years, with the equity percentage dropping (and bond percentage rising) as time goes on. At the year of retirement, the average asset allocation is roughly 45% equity and 55% bonds.

Glide paths stick closer to the average across funds during the early accumulation years, but differ much more as you near retirement. Near-retirees take notice! The chart below shows the historical percentage difference in quarterly return between funds with the same target dates. (All the 2020 funds were compared, all the 2030 funds were compared, etc.) You can see that during the “COVID crash” in Q1 2020, the biggest difference in performance actually came from the funds meant for those in retirement.

Some TDFs maintain a higher equity allocation and keep lowering it gradually “through” the retirement date, while others decrease more sharply right up “to” the retirement date and then hold things steady. For a 2020 fund, this could mean a 15% difference in the amount of stocks being held in 2020 (ex. 45% stocks vs. 30% stocks). The situation actually flips a decade after retirement and the “through” funds end up holding less stocks on average.

The past performance of TDFs often hinges on recent stock market performance and which funds are holding the most stocks (or most domestic stocks). Both the “through” and “to” methods have their pros and cons, but one might fit your own preferences better. I personally think that people do respond differently to market drops after they stop working completely and have fully exhausted their “human capital”. (Once you can’t make any more money, you start to stare at your balance more often…) Perhaps the gradual “through” funds would work better for those that also stop working gradually, while the “to” funds would be better for those that stop work completely.

You can adjust your volatility level by picking a different date. You probably only have one TDF series as opposed to a wide menu. If it’s too stock-heavy for you, then just pick a retirement date that is earlier. If it holds too many bonds, then just pick a retirement date that is earlier. There is no rule that you have to pick your actual retirement year, or even any single one.

Gold or Silver-rated Target Date Funds. Morningstar changed up their ratings methodology in November 2019. A very detailed explanation and full rankings are in the report. Here are the gold/silver-rated funds and whether they are “through/to”:

  • Blackrock LifePath Index (To)
  • JPMorgan SmartRetirement Blend (To)
  • Fidelity Freedom Index (Through)
  • Fidelity Freedom (Through)
  • JPMorgan SmartRetirement (To)
  • State Street Target Retirement (Through)
  • Vanguard Target Retirement (Through)
  • American Funds Target Date Retirement (Through)
  • T. Rowe Price Retirement (Through)

All other things equal, I’d still prefer a passive index approach with rock-bottom costs, but I’m glad to see even the actively-managed TDFs have lower expense ratios now than before.

Some of these TDF series are not available to retail investors outside of a employer-sponsored retirement plan. The Vanguard Target Retirement fund series remains the most popular with a 37% market share as of March 2020, and is also available to retail investors with a $1,000 minimum investment.

Bottom line. Although we often don’t have much choice in the matter, the good news is that every year the average target date fund gets cheaper and more competitive. Any of the gold/silver fund series above are able to provide a simple all-in-one solution. Added together, these “top-rated” options make up 78% of all TDF assets. However, it is still important to understand how your fund’s asset allocation changes as it nears the target retirement year, and know that you can pick a different year to adjust your risk level. If your fund is one of the bottom-dwellers, you may want to use this report to bug the HR department.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Savings I Bonds May 2020 Interest Rate: 0.00% Fixed, 1.06% Inflation Rate

Posted on May 6, 2020 // 15 Comments

sb_poster

Update May 2020. The fixed rate will be 0.00% for I bonds issued from May 1, 2020 through October 31st, 2020. The variable inflation-indexed rate for this 6-month period will be 1.06% (as was predicted). The total rate on any specific bond is the sum of the fixed and variable rates, changing every 6 months. If you buy a new bond in between May 2020 and October 2020, you’ll get 1.06% for the first 6 months. See you again in mid-October for the next early prediction for November 2020.)

Original post 4/13/20:

Savings I Bonds are a unique, low-risk investment backed by the US Treasury that pay out a variable interest rate linked to inflation. You could own them as an alternative to bank certificates of deposit (they are liquid after 12 months) or bonds in your portfolio.

New inflation numbers were just announced at BLS.gov, which allows us to make an early prediction of the May 2020 savings bond rates a couple of weeks before the official announcement on the 1st. This also allows the opportunity to know exactly what a April 2020 savings bond purchase will yield over the next 12 months, instead of just 6 months. You can then compare this against a May 2020 purchase.

New inflation rate prediction. September 2019 CPI-U was 256.759. March 2020 CPI-U was 258.115, for a semi-annual increase of 0.53%. Using the official formula, the variable component of interest rate for the next 6 month cycle will be 1.06%. You add the fixed and variable rates to get the total interest rate. If you have an older savings bond, your fixed rate may be very different than one from recent years.

Tips on purchase and redemption. You can’t redeem until 12 months have gone by, and any redemptions within 5 years incur an interest penalty of the last 3 months of interest. A known “trick” with I-Bonds is that if you buy at the end of the month, you’ll still get all the interest for the entire month as if you bought it in the beginning of the month. It’s best to give yourself a few business days of buffer time. If you miss the cutoff, your effective purchase date will be bumped into the next month.

Buying in April 2020. If you buy before the end of April, the fixed rate portion of I-Bonds will be 0.20%. You will be guaranteed a total interest rate of 0.20 + 2.02 = 2.22% for the next 6 months. For the 6 months after that, the total rate will be 0.20 + 1.06 = 1.26%.

Let’s look at a worst-case scenario, where you hold for the minimum of one year and pay the 3-month interest penalty. If you theoretically buy on April 30th, 2020 and sell on April 1, 2021, you’ll earn a ~1.55% annualized return for an 11-month holding period, for which the interest is also exempt from state income taxes. Comparing with the best interest rates as of April 2020, you can see that this is lower than a current saving rate or 12-month CD.

Buying in May 2020. If you buy in May 2020, you will get 1.06% plus a newly-set fixed rate for the first 6 months. The new fixed rate is unknown, but is loosely linked to the real yield of short-term TIPS. In the past 6 months, the 5-year TIPS yield has dropped to a negative value! My best guess is that it will be 0.00%. Every six months, your rate will adjust to your fixed rate (set at purchase) plus a variable rate based on inflation.

If you have an existing I-Bond, the rates reset every 6 months depending on your purchase month. Your bond rate = your specific fixed rate (set at purchase) + variable rate (total bond rate has a minimum floor of 0%).

Buy now or wait? In the short-term, these I bond rates will definitely not beat a top 12-month CD rate if bought in April, and most likely won’t if bought in May either unless inflation skyrockets. Thus, if you just want to beat the current bank rates, I Bonds are not a good short-term buy right now.

If you intend to be a long-term holder, then another factor to consider is that the April fixed rate is 0.2% and that it will likely drop at least a little in May in my opinion. You may want to lock in that higher fixed rate now, which is higher than the real yield on TIPS right now.

Honestly, I am not too excited to buy either in April or May, but if I liked the long-term advantages of savings bonds (see below), I would consider buying now in April rather than May due to my guess of a higher fixed rate. You could also wait, as things might change again during the next update in mid-October.

Unique features. I have a separate post on reasons to own Series I Savings Bonds, including inflation protection, tax deferral, exemption from state income taxes, and educational tax benefits.

Over the years, I have accumulated a nice pile of I-Bonds and now consider it part of the inflation-linked bond allocation inside my long-term investment portfolio.

Annual purchase limits. The annual purchase limit is now $10,000 in online I-bonds per Social Security Number. For a couple, that’s $20,000 per year. Buy online at TreasuryDirect.gov, after making sure you’re okay with their security protocols and user-friendliness. You can also buy an additional $5,000 in paper bonds using your tax refund with IRS Form 8888. If you have children, you may be able to buy additional savings bonds by using a minor’s Social Security Number.

For more background, see the rest of my posts on savings bonds.

[Image: 1946 Savings Bond poster from US Treasury – source]

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement, Savings Bonds //

2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting Video, Transcript, and Notes

Posted on May 3, 2020 // 3 Comments

The 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting was on May 2nd, 2020 and is now available as a recorded video on Yahoo Finance and a handy Rev.com transcription. As usual, I recommend listening or reading on your own, as my notes always differ slightly from what the business media chooses to highlight.

What makes Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) interesting to me is that it all started out as Buffett investing his own money alongside a few close family and friends. He’s always had nearly all of his own money in it. Even today, Berkshire is the main investment vehicle for many family members. People you run into at the store. People with whom you’ve shared a meal. This changes the types and amounts of risk you take.

And, now, I would never take real chances with money, of other people’s money under any circumstances. Both Charlie and I come from a background where we ran partnerships. I started mine in 1956 for really seven either actual family members or the equivalent. And Charlie did the same thing six years later. And we never, neither one of us, I think, I know I didn’t, and I’m virtually certain the same is true of Charlie, neither one of us ever had a single institution investment with us.

Buffett has stated that when he writes his annual letters, he imagines his sister reading them. That’s how I try to write as well, as an enthusiast making careful shares and recommendations to family. This overall sentiment helps you understand how BRK is run.

He started out with a familiar story of “betting on America”. This country has been though a lot, and it will recover again.

One of the scariest of scenarios, when you had a war with one group of States fighting another group of States, and it may have been tested again in the great depression, and it may be tested now to some degree, but in the end the answer is never bet against America, and that in my view is as true today as it was in 1789, and even was true during the civil war, and the depths of the depression.

In terms of investing, this means holding onto stocks for 20 or 30 years. But to survive the shocks during those times, you should never borrow money to invest in stocks, you need to have adequate reserves in 100% safe cash, and you need the proper psychological temperament.

The American tailwind is marvelous. American business represents, and it’s going to have interruptions, and you’re not going to foresee the interruption, and you don’t want to get yourself in a position where those interruptions can affect you either because you’re leveraged or because you’re psychologically unable to handle looking at a bunch of numbers.

You just don’t know what’s going to happen. You know, at least in my view, you know that America’s tailwind is not exhausted. You’re going to get a fine result if you own equities over a long period of time. And the idea that equities will not produce better results than the 30-year Treasury bond, which yields one and a quarter percent now, it’s taxable income. It’s the aim of the Federal Reserve to have 2% a year inflation. Equities are going to outperform that bond. They’re going to outperform Treasury bills. They’re going to outperform that money you’ve stuck under your mattress.

Simple, low-cost S&P 500 index fund for growth. Avoid the salespeople.

So find businesses. Get a cross section. And in my view, for most people, the best thing to do is to own the S&P 500 index fund. People will try and sell you other things because there’s more money in it for them if they do. And I’m not saying that that’s a conscious act on their part. Most good salespeople believe their own baloney. I mean, that’s part of being a good salesperson. And I’m sure I’ve done plenty of that in my life too, but it’s very human if you keep repeating something often enough.

100% backed-by-the-government cash for safety. For them, it means Treasury-backed bills. For individual investors, this extends to FDIC-insured savings accounts and certificates of deposit.

And that means we own nothing but treasury bills. I mean, we’ve never owned, we never buy commercial paper. We don’t count on bank lines and a few of our subsidiaries have them, but we basically want to be in a position to get through anything. And we hope that doesn’t happen but you can’t rule out the possibility anymore than in 1929 you could rule out the possibility that you know you would be waiting until 1955, or the end of 1954, to get even.

Ignore the two things above if you have credit card debt.

My general advice to people, I mean, we have an interest in credit cards. But I think people should avoid using credit cards as a piggy bank to be rated. I had a woman come to see me here not long ago, and she’d come on some money. Not very much, but it was a lot to her. She’s a friend of mine, and she said, “What should I do with it?” I said, “Well, what do you owe on your credit card?” She says, “Well, I owe X.” I said, “Well, what you should do…” I don’t know what interest rate she was paying, but I think I asked her and she knew. It was something like 18% or something. I said, “I don’t know how to make 18%.” I mean, if I, owed any money at 18% the first thing I do with any money I had would be to pay it off. It’s going to be way better than any investment idea I’ve got. That wasn’t what she wanted to hear.

Be safe with your finances at this time. You don’t sell your airline stocks at a multi-billion dollar loss if you think a V-shaped recovery is likely. Just because we are still recovering from one horrible event, doesn’t mean another might not happen.

I would say that there are things that I think are quite improbable. And I hope they don’t happen, but that doesn’t mean they won’t happen. I mean, for example, in our insurance business, we could have the world’s, or the country’s, number one hurricane that it’s ever had, but that doesn’t preclude the fact that could have the biggest earthquake a month later. So we don’t prepare ourselves for a single problem. We prepare ourselves for problems that sometimes create their own momentum. I mean 2008 and 9, you didn’t see all the problems the first day, when what really kicked it off was when the Freddie and Fannie, the GSEs went into conservatorship in early September. And then when money market funds broke the buck… There are things to trip other things, and we take a very much a worst case scenario into mind that probably is a considerably worse case than most people do.

After listening to this entire Buffett talk and reading this Munger interview, the overall takeaway is definitely that of safety. They have been safe and will stay safe, no matter who complains about their cash levels. The world has changed, and just because something has a lower price today than in January, doesn’t automatically mean it is a better deal than in January.

Here is a NYT Dealbook article by Andrew Ross Sorkin, who has attended many shareholder meetings in person and also sensed a different tone this year.

You can find links to previous years’ Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting Full Videos, Transcripts, and Podcasts here.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting Full Videos, Transcripts, and Podcasts

Posted on May 1, 2020 // 14 Comments

(2020 update. The 2020 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting took place virtually with a Q&A session with Warren Buffett and Greg Abel (the likely next CEO). Right now it is available on replay at Yahoo Finance with the full transcript linked below.)

Berkshire Hathaway’s Annual Shareholder Meetings are held in Omaha, Nebraska every May. Although most of my portfolio is in a diversified mix of index funds, I also own individual shares of Berkshire Hathaway and respect the rational and practical advice given out by Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger.

I also like getting the information directly! I missed the live event again in 2019, but I plan catch up by first reading the WSJ liveblog, and then listening to the entire Q&A session via Yahoo Finance podcast at my own pace. Here are the many ways that you can catch up on past shareholder meetings.

Full Videos

  • Yahoo Finance Livestream. Yahoo Finance is the exclusive online host of the Berkshire Hathaway 2020 Annual Shareholders Meeting that occurred May 2nd, 2020. View the entire Q&A session in its entirety on demand.
  • CNBC Warren Buffett Archive. Footage of shareholder meetings from 1994-2019 In 2018, Berkshire gave CNBC a box of old VHS tapes (!) which were converted to digital videos so that everyone can view them for free. Additional material from CNBC including interviews, highlights, and short-form videos is also available.

Transcripts

Liveblogs

Podcasts

  • Yahoo Finance also makes the BRK meeting available as a podcast, so you can listen in parts during your commute or chores. I listened to the entire 2018 meeting in the car while driving, and I liked it much better than sitting in front a computer. 2019 is already uploaded. iTunes. Player.fm.

Books

This post is about the live shareholder meeting, and is separate from the 2019 annual shareholder letter (which are also great).

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement //

Should I Roll Over My 401k into an IRA? How to Decide

Posted on April 30, 2020 // 13 Comments

The WSJ article What to Do With a 401(k) When Leaving a Job did a good job summarizing the various things to consider when that time comes. Here is a chart showing what happens to the 401k and 403b plans held across Vanguard-sponsored employer plans:

Now, Vanguard-sponsored 401k plans are mostly from big employers and are highly likely to have both low-cost investment options and reasonable fees. I don’t know if these percentages apply to all 401k and 403b plans in general. I’ve seen some pretty bad ones with absurdly high fees, although that was several years ago. Here’s a summary of the right questions to ask:

Investment selection? Are the available investments better in your 401k or in your choice of IRA custodian? Some 401ks offer choices not available to retail investors. For example, access to mutual funds from Dimensional Fund Advisors (DFA). Or institutional shares of certain funds with low expense ratios. Or stable value funds with higher interest rates than retail bond funds. On the other side, you may be itching to buy something like real estate in a self-directed IRA. These days, both probably have some sort of all-in-one Target retirement fund, but is yours a low-cost option from Vanguard (Target Retirement) or Fidelity (Freedom Index)?

Account fees? Part of the total cost picture is the expense ratio of the funds inside, but you may also be subject to overall account management fees or maintenance fees. Some 401k plans have zero or minimal management fees. Other 401k plans have crazy-high fees on the order of 1.75% of assets annually. Nearly all of the major IRA providers now offer no annual fees and commission-free ETF trades.

Need Advice? Some 401k plans offer some level of included advice that you may value. Other people have their own personal advisor that would love to customize that IRA.

Age 55 Rule (Early withdrawal?). Starting in the year that you turn 55, you can make a withdrawal from your 401k without the 10% early withdrawal penalty. You will still owe income taxes for a pre-tax 401k withdrawal, just not 10% penalty. For IRAs, you would have to wait until age 59.5. Potential early retirees may value these 4.5 years of additional flexibility.

Asset protection needs? There is a lot of legal fine print here, but 401k plans in general appear to offer some of the highest levels of asset protection. IRAs do offer a certain level of asset protection as well, just not quite as high as a 401(k). The difference will probably not matter much for the vast majority of workers, but it may matter for high-income professionals with liability concerns like doctors.

Non-deductible / Backdoor IRA contributions? The article didn’t cover why I didn’t roll over my last 401k plan into an IRA when leaving the employer. My situation is admittedly somewhat uncommon, but not unheard of. Call it “finding-yeast-in-April-2020” uncommon.

Due to my higher income level at the time, I contributed to a non-deductible IRA each year and then converted that to a Roth IRA. (This is also known as a Backdoor Roth IRA.) However, when you do the conversion, if you have any other pre-tax “traditional” IRAs, your conversion must include the pre-tax IRA amount as well on a pro-rated basis. For example, if you had a $20,000 pre-tax deducted IRA and a $5,000 non-deductible IRA, and then decided to convert $5,000 into a Roth IRA it would be considered 80% from the pre-tax IRA and only 20% non-deductible. You’d have to pay taxes on the entire pre-tax IRA amount (contribution + gains) since you never paid taxes initially. By keeping my pre-tax 401k at the employer, I am able to take full tax advantage of all annual Backdoor Roth contributions. Thankfully, the old 401k was at Fidelity with solid investment options and no annual fees.

How much do you value simplicity? If you do a lot of job-hopping, then do you really want to juggle five old 401k accounts? Merging them all into one IRA can save you time and hassle. On top of keeping tabs on your investments and asset allocation, you’d have to do all the mundane things like keep all your contact info and beneficiaries up to date. I would worry also that my spouse would forget about an old 401k plan if I something happened to me.

Filed Under: Investing, Retirement, Taxes //
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