Farecast: Interesting Airfare Price Prediction and Insurance Tool

Recently, my friend Yogin told me about a website called Farecast.com. It’s actually been around for a while now but somehow I’ve missed it… so maybe you have as well. There’s basically two parts to the website that are unique. Let’s say I’m planning a trip from Portland to San Francisco on 7/25-8/1. First they provide me the lowest fare history, which charts the lowest fare for your trip for up to the last 90 days:

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Pretty cool! You can try to predict any trends yourself or simply see if you’re getting a good price relative to recent history. Another possible way to use the historical information is to help you decide what to bid on a site like Priceline.com or what to accept on Hotwire.

But FareCast also provides their own 7-day fare prediction to help you decide whether to buy now or wait. The arrow show how confident they are about it based on their algorithms:

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To me, I would think the fare might actually rise more given the graph. But according to an independent audit, Farecast’s prediction accuracy was 74.5 percent. Not bad, but not awesome? But they’ll also put a little money where their mouths are by offering fare insurance when they are confident you should wait. Here’s how it works:

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So you pay $10 upfront and wait. If they are wrong and prices go up, they reimburse you the difference. If they are right and prices go down, hopefully you saved at least $10. Worst case, prices stay the same and you’re out $10. This is interesting… anyone use this insurance before? Either way, I’ll definitely use this site in the future as part of my airfare research.

Added
Kayak is great, but don’t forget to try and book directly on the airline’s websites whenever possible, so you can take advantage of price drop refunds.

Compilation of Frugal Mattress Shopping Tips + Our New Better-Than-Heavenly Bed

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First, I just want to say thanks for all the great and helpful comments on my post on trying to find a new mattress. I read every single comment, used many of them, and have purchased a new mattress! But before going into that I wanted to do a quick summary of all the tips.

Don’t go cheap. But don’t overpay, either.
Most readers, my friends, and even our parents told us not to go cheap on a mattress. People say you spend a third of your life on this thing. I agree that you shouldn’t buy solely based on price. But as you’ll see below, buying a mattress is intentionally confusing for the consumer, and the price on the exact same quality mattress can vary literally by a thousand dollars! So I respectfully disagree with “you get what you pay for”. Being frugal isn’t the same as being cheap! It’s shopping smart.

Go out to some stores and try them out.
Another good piece of advice that I got was to go out to the stores and try them all out. As reader and former mattress salesman Tim F suggests, you should wear some comfortable clothes (no skirts for women!) and spend at least 5 minutes laying on each bed exactly as you would normally sleep. You’re dropping a grand on something that’s supposed to last 10 years, so take your time and don’t let anyone rush you.

The exact same mattress can have 50 different names…
Chesterfield? Summerbrooke? Belmont? While looking at traditional coil mattresses, every single store had a different British name for what looked like the exact same bed. This is on purpose. From MattressHotline:

Why does each retailer have a different name for the same product?
This gives each retailer the opportunity to set their own unique price points and also give the perception of exclusivity.

Translation: We have huge profit margins, and we don’t want to enable you to easily comparison shop.

Check out this huge list of equivalent names just for the Simmons brand alone. I mean, I’ve heard of rebadging products, but a separate name for every store? Some brands attempt to justify this by using slightly different fabrics or designs that cover the identical mattresses. If you can figure out the name game, they also have comfort and durability guides that may be useful. (Thanks to reader John Tarnok.)

As for memory foam beds, I’m sure it’s equally hard to compare across brands. A salesperson said that Tempurpedic has a patent on their specific type of foam, so no other brand would be able to exactly offer the same product. My feeling is that as time goes by the copycats will catch up soon enough.

…so everyone can offer low-price guarantees.
You may have noticed that every single mattress store guarantees the lowest price. These names are why!! It gives them complete discretion. If they are willing to match your price, then they’ll give you an “equivalent” mattress (be careful that it is indeed equivalent). If they aren’t willing to go that low, they can simply say that it’s not the same mattress.

Our Experience – Trying to create our own Heavenly Bed

Like many people, we stayed at a Westin hotel (thanks to the Starwood American Express card) and we really liked their Heavenly Bed. In fact, you can buy the mattress and linens directly from them or also at Nordstrom’s. A queen mattress set with no linens is $1450 (including shipping). Recently there was even a 40% off coupon which someone was nice enough to e-mail me, but it’s now expired. So we had to create our own!
[Read more…]

Random Thrift Store Shopping Discoveries

I mentioned before that we were involved in a volunteer trip to Haiti, and part of it simply involved donating a bunch of unwanted clothing. We also went to a bunch of different Salvation Army’s and Goodwills to find some additional cheap clothing to give away. While doing so, I noticed something that in retrospect is obvious – the stores next to the country-club type neighborhoods have the nicest stuff. There was name-brand clothing and shoes everywhere. We picked up some like-new Polo jeans for $6 – it was like shopping at Buffalo Exchange but 75% off. I’m sure the more fashion-savvy could probably pick some stuff up and re-sell it on eBay for a profit.

Another less-exciting discovery? You can buy used underwear at some stores. We’re talking tightie-whities here! 😕 I suppose they serve a need, but who donates lightly-used underwear anyways? I don’t think I can bear to do so myself, but next time I do a donation run I will be sure to throw in a new pack of Hanes.

Cheap Admission To Nature’s Amusement Park

Sorry for the relative silence recently, I had friends over for the weekend. A while I ago I wrote about choosing frugal hobbies, and one great thing about Portland is that the biggest draw, regardless of cost, is really the outdoors. You get crisp mountain air, gorgeous views, and the main price of admission is simply your willingness to walk. We hiked to the top of Multnomah Falls and Dog Mountain, where you can catch views of both Mt. Hood and Mt. St. Helens when it’s clear. Here are actual pictures we took, to me they almost look like postcards!

Columbia River Gorge Multnomah Falls Hike Wildflowers

The total cost per person including gas, tolls, and park fees was less than $5. Also, we simply packed our own picnic lunches to eat at the top. Hiking is definitely something I need to do more of, and would be a great summer counterpart to our more expensive hobby of skiing.

My Attempts at Frugal Mattress Shopping

It’s time for a new mattress. Our current one was found 10 years ago from a university mailing list for $75. It’s actually a nice mattress and the seller said it cost $400 new and was only a year old. I remember believing her because she lived in a luxury apartment complex and the top to her red Mazda Miata convertible was also in the apartment. Anyways, it served me very well for a decade, but now the bed is really starting to sag in the middle and I’ve been waking up with a sore back every morning.

In addition, we are having our relocation expenses reimbursed, so we figure buying now won’t cost us any more, and we can avoid paying sales tax while still in Oregon.

Keeping in mind the previous story was my only mattress-buying experience, we set out to find a new place to sleep. After seeing an ad for $99/piece at a local mattress store, and decided to check it out. I figured, if $200 is cheap, then $500 should buy us a decent set, right?

Would I like to try laying down on a pillowtop? Sure… $1,500!

How about a Tempurpedic foam mattress? Nice… $2,500?!

Wait, what about the $200 set? Here it is… Yikes, you can feel every spring! This is supposed to be a new mattress? It might work for a guest room, assuming you don’t like having visitors. Teaser mattresses… who knew.

After trying several beds with enormous price tags and being subjected to too many choices, we left. Next stop – trusty Costco! I was surprised to discover they even have their own Kirkland line of mattresses! But this one caught my eye – the NovaForm Queen Fresh Dreams Memory Foam Mattress on sale for $550.

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After reading a couple of online reviews, it seems like a solid bet. Older models had a certain smell to them, but the newer ones apparently don’t. Also, there have been scattered comments about the mattress not expanding properly into a perfect box shape. Since it doesn’t come with a platform, I know that I’ll have to make my own or just buy a piece of plywood to put on top of our current boxspring since foam mattresses need to be on a solid surface.

Either way, I’m not too worried because of Costco’s great return policy. I’ve read that they will even pick up the mattress again from you for free. I’ll have to confirm that, but this is looking tempting. Anyone out there with any experiences with this mattress? I’ve heard great things about memory foam mattresses in general, and from my test-drives I think I would like them.

Another idea was to simply buy a $100-$200 foam mattress topper, and add that to my current bed. But since my mattress was already sagging, I decided against it. Costco does sell a basic Serta queen mattress for $400. Madame X over at My Open Wallet also bought a new mattress recently.

Get A Refund On Airfare Price Drops With Yapta

I just saw a blurb on TV about a new site called Yapta, or Your Amazing Personal Travel Assistant. On the surface, it’s just another airfare price tracker that can be found on sites like Travelocity.

But, if you’ve already purchased your ticket, you can enter your confirmation code and Yapta will then track prices on that flight and alert you if the price drops. Why is this good?

Did you know you could get a refund or travel credit when prices drop after you.ve bought a ticket? Most people don’t. The airlines offer this policy only if you buy on the airline website (and they want you to have the confidence to buy early). Yapta alerts people when prices drop so they can get these refunds and credits from the airlines.

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This is a good reminder not to buy on sites like Orbitz unless they truly have the best price after fees. It’s usually cheaper or the same price to buy directly on the airline website, and you might even get this price drop protection.

I think the refund is often in the form of a voucher good on a future flight on the same airline, but it’s still worth a shot. Currently, it works on Alaska, America West, American, Continental, Delta, Northwest, Southwest, and US Airways.

Trying To Avoid Lifestyle Inflation

Most of this post was originally published last year when I was a guest writer at the Get Rich Slowly blog. I have since made some revisions and added some more material below.

One common thread through my How much house should I buy? post is that whatever size house you get, you’ll expand to fill it up. This reminded me a lot about what I call “lifestyle inflation” – the phenomenon where no matter how little or how much someone earns, their spending tends to match their income.

When you were a student, your friends were also broke, and it was easy to eat frozen pizza for dinner and manage without a car. That was probably one of the funnest periods in your life! But when you have more money, you start looking to upgrade: a nicer car, a bigger house, brand name clothes, cooler gadgets. Why? Call it peer pressure, entitlement, or simply money burning a hole in your pocket.

As we progress along our career paths, here are a couple of things that my wife and I are trying to do in order to keep our lifestyles in check:

  • Put saving first. You?ve heard it before, but that?s because it?s works. Pay yourself first. If you get a raise, immediately increase the percentage going into your 401k, IRA, or brokerage account. The less that?s ending up in your bank account, the less you?ll have the urge to spend.
  • Put debt last. Making more does not mean you should borrow more, contrary to what the credit card companies or other lenders may suggest. If you have debt, pay it down. If you don’t, keep it that way.
  • Living on one income. Our dream goal has always been to be able to both work half-time in order to have more time to raise our future children. If this can?t happen, then one of us will work while the other stays home. This is a conscious decision to actually make less money, in order to focus on the more important things in our life. Of course, we’ll have to work double-hard now in order to make our hourly income high enough to pull it off!

    In the meantime, even though both of us are currently working, we are still trying to live as if we only had one income. Over the last 12 months, we saved 43% of our after-tax income.

  • Buy an affordable house. For most people their largest monthly expense is housing. Affordable does not mean what the bank will let you borrow! By simply buying the biggest house possible, you?re also inflating many other things. You have to furnish all those extra bedrooms, heat them every winter, cool them every summer, and insure them. As we plan to live in a very expensive area, this rule will probably be the hardest for us not to break, especially on one income.
  • Be realistic about cars. Probably the second largest monthly expense for many, I am always amazed when people’s car payments are more than half of their housing payments!! But I also know that a new luxury car means more than just higher monthly payments. It means higher insurance premiums, maintenance costs, and repair costs. It also likely has a bigger engine, which means less fuel economy, and may even require premium-grade fuel. Neither of us have ever owned a new car before, which helps keep our expectations low.

It may seem contradictory that we are moving to an area where the median home price is over $600,000, but that choice is predominantly due to a desire to live near family. In the end, we are trying to define a comfortable, simple lifestyle that focuses on what is really important to us. (Of course, we will won’t lead completely spartan lives…) The things that we buy on a $75,000 salary shouldn?t be much different than if we had a $750,000 salary. For example, my wife cuts my hair because I like having a simple haircut, it?s not difficult, and she does it how I like it. Even if we become millionaires someday, I think she?ll still cut my hair. I’ll let you know when we get there 😉

Another $105 In Easy Discounts From Comcast Cable

Since I already wrung a few extra dollars from my cell phone bill with the Sprint SERO plan, I figured I’d try the same with another monthly expense – Cable TV and Broadband internet access with Comcast. Even though I know there are slightly cheaper options than Comcast in my area (satellite and DSL), I like being able to use my existing TiVo and the speed of Cable internet. To compensate, I try to get all the discounts possible.

In the past, I’ve already haggled $138 off my cable bill over six months. Then when I had to move, instead of moving my service, I canceled and signed up again in order to take advantage of their new customer promotions. This saved me another $250 including the free modem.

My discount expired a few months ago, and I’ve been paying full price without really thinking about it. But I just got notice of another rate hike yesterday, and my new bill is now barely under $100! Time for another call to Comcast. Here’s how the conversation went:

Comcast:How can I help you today?

Me: Hi, I’ve been a customer for a while now, and I’ve been seeing commercials for [competitor’s name] offering DSL for [price less than Comcast]. I’ve also noticed that you are offering new customers $19.99/month for High-speed internet. Is there any way you can offer that to me as well?

Comcast: Sure, let me check. [on hold] Yes, it shows you are eligible for a discount of $10 a month for 6 months. We can’t match [competitor’s name] because their DSL is slower than our service.

Me: Okay, great. What about TV? Am I eligible for any discounts there?

Comcast: Yes, you can get $15 off for 3 months. I have applied these to your account.

With a 10-minute phone call, I just saved another $105 ($60+$45) off of retail. And from the way she talked, it seemed like the computer has already pre-approved each customer for certain levels of discounts. If you’re paying full price, free money may be sitting there waiting for you to claim it! You don’t even need to employ any verbal ninja skills or Jedi mind-tricks.

I’m sure other cable providers have similar promotions. You can compare your currently available offers from Comcast, AT&T, TimeWarner, Verizon, etc. at BroadbandNational, using your address and phone number.

Sprint SERO Plan Review: Affordable Cell Phone Plan, Free Data, Currently Open To All

If you are currently out of or nearing the end of your cell phone contract, be sure to consider the Sprint Employee Referral Offer, or SERO, plan. Although it has been heavily discussed for a while on many cellular enthusiast forums, actually getting on the plan used to require a referral from a Sprint Employee (duh), some smooth-talking over the phone, or the “borrowing” of a random employee e-mail from the internet. However, right now they have opened it up to the public, and I have gone ahead and jumped on it myself as it probably won’t last forever. Here are my experiences:

How to order
» Visit the Sprint SERO site.
» Type in either “savings@sprint.com” or “savings@sprintemi.com” in the box for Sprint Employee E-mail Address, along with your zip code.
» You should be greeted with the default offer shown to the right. However, you can choose from a variety of phones and plans to suit your needs and do all the ordering online. (If you don’t, the e-mails may have expired.)
» When you order, please note that you will be subjected to a hard credit pull just like with other carriers.

The plans all include such perks as free long distance, unlimited Sprint mobile-to-mobile, Unlimited Weekends and Nights starting at 7pm, and unlimited Power Vision (web, IM, e-mail). If you talk enough to make a prepaid plan too expensive, 500 anytime minutes for $30 plus taxes seems like a very good price. Two-year contract required, no activation fee.

Phones
The prices on phones are sometimes a good deal, but not always cheaper than other places. Although I have seen them offer free phones, I think they start at $20 now. You can compare with other sites, taking into the account the monthly savings on this plan.

I splurged and bought the Motorola Q for $100 because, well, I’m a geek and wanted to take advantage of the free data! Unlimited data alone costs $20-$50 a month on other carriers. It’s not quite a Treo and there is no touchscreen, but I can check my e-mail and also internet in a pinch. It’s quite thin, and overall I’m very happy with my new toy. 😀

Service
Although they do send it out via 2-Day FedEx, it took me about a week before they actually shipped my phone. However, there is a status website that keeps you relatively well-informed. It should be noted that InPhonic (WireFly.com) is the outsourced provider that you’ll actually be dealing with during the initial purchase, not Sprint. They aren’t the best from what I’ve read, so if you are going to port your existing number, it may be a good idea to do it yourself through Spring customer service once you’ve gotten the phone. It took me only minutes and I just needed my old account number. In the meantime, they’ll just assign you another number.

As for Sprint’s service, they’ve been very good so far. My hold times have been pretty short, the CSRs have been nice. Coverage will vary for everyone, but mine has been adequate. There is also a 30-day guarantee just in case it isn’t.

Other notes
» You can still add any corporate or student discounts to your plan, bringing the overall price down even lower. If you are a student, call 1-866-853-4931, hit 1, and ask about your specific university. I ended up with 10% off.
» You can’t add a cheap 2nd line on these plans. This is important to note for non-single folks, because our old Cingular family line plan was actually very comparable to the SERO price. We used to share 800 minutes for $68 total a month after discounts. Now we have 500 minutes each for about $64 total per month. ($30 x 2 – 10% discount + $5 taxes per line.) The only real difference in service is the free data.
» If you experience a dropped call, you can dial *2 on your phone, say “dropped call”, and they will credit 50 cents on your account.

» After you get the phone, you can also call in for a free $25 debit card if you give them your new phone number and another referring person’s Nextel/Sprint PCS number. The other person will get $25 too. I referred my wife and we both got $25. If would like a number to use for a referral, you can contact me with your new cell phone number.

For more information, you can join the (long and often tedious) ongoing discussions at SprintUsers, Slickdeals, Fatwallet, or Howard Forums. If you are currently in a Sprint contract, you may want to read this post for some tips.

Our Spending Breakdown For The Last 12 Months

Several readers shared their own spending breakdowns in the comments of my previous post, so that inspired me to dig up the numbers for ourselves. I don’t have exact stats, and our income varies each month, but I did the best I could by averaging everything over the last 12 months. The percentages are taken from after-tax, or “take home”, income.

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Quick explanations for each category:

Food is both eating out and groceries. Car means gas, maintenance, and insurance. Insurance means everything but car insurance: Health, Dental, Disability, Renter’s, and Umbrella. Utilities are all monthly recurring expenses like natural gas, electricity, trash, cell phone, VoIP, and water. Travel includes both visiting family and sightseeing. Savings includes both short-term savings for a house downpayment and putting away for retirement. Other is everything else – pet-related, clothes, gifts, donations, etc.

Things look pretty manageable for us right now, but soon our housing slice will probably double or more in size, and we have no kids right now, so the pie will definitely evolve over time. Of course, hopefully we’ll be earning more too. I also want to add life insurance and maybe better disability insurance to the mix soon.

This was an interesting exercise, perhaps just as illuminating as tracking your expenses for a month. Even if you guesstimate, you’ll likely end up with something that may inspire some change or simply reinforce your efforts so far.

Just like with my net worth tracking, I’m not here to compete with anyone else, I think we all have our own goals to work towards. However, feel free to comment with your own numbers.

The Las Vegas Coupon Run: Is Frugal Gambling An Oxymoron?

If you’re going to Vegas, should you even bother worrying about being frugal? I mean, I’ve never seen so many Hummers in my life, and you need sunglasses while walking around at 4am. It’s the land of excess.

But one idea for the frugalites out there is the Las Vegas Coupon Run. Many casinos give you sign-up bonuses for signing up for their player’s card, which basically a “frequent flier card” for gamblers. (If you gamble a lot, these programs in themselves can be very valuable. But I don’t, so I just toss them.) The sign-up bonuses are usually in the form of coupons or “Fun Books”, which vary from free drinks, free trinkets, 2-for-1 dinner buffets, free Slot Play, or what’s called Match Play coupons. A $5 Match Play coupon means that if you bet $5 and win, you’d get $10. If you lose, you’re still out that $5. Theoretically, if you play a game that is very close to 50/50 odds, the value of a $5 Match Play coupon would be $2.50. You can also sometimes find them in as ads in the Vegas flyers and free tourist brochures. Get enough of these coupons, and it starts to add up.

So what you do? Basically, whenever you visit a new casino, just walk up to the Player’s Club counter and ask if they offer any sign-up perks. You can also try this FunBook Finder, but it doesn’t look like it’s been updated for a while. Many of the better perks are for places off the Strip.

Although, I’m not doing this myself this time around, I did do this last time I went as a broke college student. We drove the 10 hours to Vegas instead of flying, split a $59 hotel room, and just explored the city since we already had a car this way. We ended up scoring lots of gawdy t-shirts, keychains, shot glass, and cheap drinks. But the best part – we actually made about $200 cash per person! Most of this was after getting a scratch-off ticket and earning $100 in free slot machine credits at Palace Station. Essentially my first trip to Vegas was free! I tried asking around this week and the perks seems less abundant, but they were still out there. If you are looking for some cheap thrills and you want to explore many different casinos anyways, it can be a good time.

For another view, read this article on the Anatomy of a Coupon Run, which also included these hints:

  • Look everywhere for coupons.
  • Read everything you can about how coupons work. – Understand the difference between coupons that carry risk and those that are risk-free.
  • Have a separate bankroll for couponing. – Keep track of your results.
  • Be sure to read the fine print – Look for blackout dates and restrictions.
  • Make a game plan to maximize your time.
  • Don’t be afraid to use a coupon for a game you don’t know how to play.
  • Always bet the maximum amount of money allowed for matchplay coupons.
  • Never overbet your bankroll just because you have a coupon.
  • The more people pooling their coupons on a run the merrier.

While you’re out exploring, consider spending some of your winnings on the Top 10 Bargains In Las Vegas. I’ve had the $4.95 Steak Dinner, the 99 cent Shrimp cocktail, and the $1 Michelob. They all paled in the comparison to the 99 cent deep-fried Twinkie and 99 cent 1/4 lb. hot dog at Mermaids on Fremont Street. 5,000 calories for $2, you can’t beat that 😉 In fact, I should add them to my post on What Does 200 Calories Cost?

Free Phone Numbers That Should Be In Every Cell Phone

Here are some free and useful phone numbers that I am always glad are in my cell phone.

1-800-FREE-411 – Free 411 Directory assistance. Why pay 99 cents a call? They can even text message you the phone number of the business you’re looking for, so you don’t need to scramble for a pen. Details here.

1-800-GOOG-411 – Free 411 Directory assistance from Google. Uses voice recognition, and connects you for free.

1-888-DO-FRUCALL – Wondering if the price you see in a store is fair? Just call FruCall and type in the UPC bar code number, and it will tell you the best price online. Details here.

1-800-555-TELL – Looking for local movie showtimes? Sports news? Driving directions? Stock quotes? Try TellMe. I use this a lot to kill time when waiting around for friends.

Store them in your cell phones now, or you’ll be sorry. 🙂 Please add your own in the comments!